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ICON-EU ensemble forecasts

This page provides box plots of 5-day ICON-EU ensemble forecasts (Source: Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD, "German weather service") for several European cities, in fact, for the grid box containing these cities.
Available variables: 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed, precipitation rate and sum, cloud cover, mean sea level pressure and direct and diffuse radiation.

Amsterdam Athens Berlin Copenhagen Dublin Hamburg Karlsruhe Lisbon London Madrid Mainz Munich Rome Valencia Warsaw Vienna

DWD initialises these forecasts four times a day at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC (CET = UTC+1, CEST = UTC+2).

  • It takes 5 hours and 5 minutes from model initialisation to produce these plots. Therefore, the plots are updated at 06:05 CET (initialised at 01 CET, i.e. 00 UTC), 12:05, 18:05 and 00:05 CET (during summer at 07:05, 13:05, 19:05 and 01:05 CEST, respectively).
  • For every city, "Initial times" shows the forecasts which were initialised 6, 12 etc. up to 48 hours earlier for all the variables.
  • For every city, "Variables" shows the forecasts for single variables for all the initial times.

 

The ICON ensemble prediction system

The ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the ICON model generates 40 forecasts, so called members, with grid spacings of approximately 40 km on the global scale and 20 km in a nested domain over Europe (ICON-EU). Each member is initialised from a slightly different, but realistic, initial state to account for uncertainties in our knowledge of the current state of the atmosphere.

    The box plots on this page are calculated from the 40 members of the ICON-EU-EPS. They show the median, the 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentile and the absolute minimum and maximum of the 40 members, representing the uncertainty of the forecasts.

More information on the model and the interpretation of ensemble forecasts can be found on the web pages of DWD (German).

 

Terms and conditions

Download and plotting of these data has been implemented within the Waves to Weather project.

Neither the institute nor any persons commissioned by the institute assume any responsibility for damages that arise or have arisen from the use of the data.
Weder das Institut noch irgendwelche vom Institut beauftragten Personen übernehmen eine Verantwortung für Schäden, die aus der Verwendung der Daten entstehen oder entstanden sind.