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New paper

09.09.2016: Discussion paper in review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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D. Piper, M. Kunz, F. Ehmele, S. Mohr, B. Mühr, A. Kron, and J. Daniell (2016): Exceptional sequence of severe thunderstorms and related flash floods in May and June 2016 in Germany. Part I: Meteorological background. ANat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-275, in review.

Abstract:

During a 15-day episode from 26 May until 09 June 2016, Germany was affected by an exceptionally large number of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall, related flash floods and creek flooding, hail and tornadoes caused substantial losses running into billions of Euros (EUR). This paper analyzes the key features of the severe thunderstorm episode using extreme value statistics, an aggregated precipitation severity index, and two different objective weather type classification schemes. It is shown that the thunderstorm episode was caused by the interaction of high moisture content, low thermal stability, weak wind speed, and large-scale lifting by surface lows, persisting over almost 2 weeks due to atmospheric blocking. For the long-term assessment of the recent thunderstorm episode, we draw comparisons to a 55-years period (1960–2014) regarding clusters of convective days with variable length (2–15 days) based on precipitation severity, convection-favoring weather patterns and compound events with low stability and weak flow. It is found that clusters with more than eight consecutive convective days are very rare. For example, a 10-day cluster with convective weather patterns prevailing during the recent thunderstorm episode has a probability of only 0.01 %.

 

Keywords:

  • flash floods;
  • heavy rainfall;
  • large-scale weather types;
  • severe thunderstorms;
  • convection;
  • persistence.