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Working Group "Atmospheric Risks"

Group leader Prof. Dr. Michael Kunz, Deputy group leader Dr. Susanna Mohr

Meteorological extreme events, such as winter storms, heavy precipitation, hail, or convective wind gusts are often associated with serious impacts for the society and their assets. These events, however, occur not everywhere with the same intensity, but exhibit a high spatial and temporal variability especially due to topographic influences. Further, it is expected that the probability and intensity of extreme events will change as a result of climate change.

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Within this context, various research projects are carried out in the working group "Atmospheric Risks". In the course of the relevant weather systems are hailstorms, mesoscale precipitation systems and convective wind gusts. The following scientific questions are addressed:

  • How can the hazard of extreme weather events be estimated in high spatial resolution? Where do the highest intensities (storm, hail) occur?
  • What are the trends of meteorological extremes in the past and what is expected for the future?
  • What is the role of orography in the amplification or weakening of atmospheric disturbances?
  • Which severe weather events can be expected in the next few days and where?

To answer these questions, various observational data sets (station data, radar data, radiosonde data, loss data from insurance companies) and simulation results from operational weather prediction models and regional climate models are evaluated and analyzed by applying modern statistical methods. These works are supplemented by modeling studies with numerical and diagnostic models to reproduce the relevant physical processes in detail and, thus, to gain a better understanding of these phenomena.

 

Current News

How to understand better atmosphere’s influence on thunderstorm lifetime?

Ongoing research aims to identify meteorological quantities for the improvement of short-term thunderstorm forecasts in cooperation with DWD.

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3rd European Hail Workshop, 16-18 March 2020, Karlsruhe

The IMK-TRO is organizing the next European Hail Workshop in Karlsruhe. Abstract submission (Deadline 29.11.19) and registration (Deadline 31.01.20) is now possible on the workshop website.

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New Paper

Title: Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in Central and Western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns

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Here you found older News