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11/06/2018 - Visit of AXPO Trading

AGGrams_Axpo
Julian Quinting, Dominik Büeler, energy meteorologist Remo Beerli, and Christian Grams in front of the AXPO main building in Baden (Switzerland).

The SPREADOUT group visited AXPO Trading in Baden (Switzerland) on 11 June 2018. The main purpose of the visit was to inform energy traders and meteorologists at AXPO about current research activities and to discuss forecast tools useful to the energy sector. After an introductory presentation on SPREADOUT by Christian Grams and Dominik Büeler, Remo Beerli (energy meteorologist at AXPO) showed us the trading floor. There we gained interesting insights in the day-to-day business of energy meteorologists and learned about the forecast products that are needed to provide reliable information to the energy traders. Future collaborations and research avenues were elaborated in a lively discussion in the afternoon.


01/06/2018 - Welcome Nadine Schittko and Seraphine Hauser

Spreadout
Dominik Büeler, Nadine Schittko, Seraphine Hauser, Christian Grams, Julian Quinting

SPREADOUT is growing further: We welcome Nadine Schittko and Seraphine Hauser who will join the group for the next year to complete their Master’s degree.

Nadine will analyse the representation of tropical cyclones in the global forecast model ICON. In the framework of the Master’s thesis, she will implement different tropical cyclone tracking algorithms to verify the intensity and motion of tropical cyclones against best track data. Some impact relevant North Atlantic Hurriances in 2016/17 will be studied in greater detail. The project is executed in close collaboration with DWD where the resulting tools may be used operationally in the future for verification purposes.

In her Master’s thesis, Seraphine is going to analyse “The effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on Australian climate variability from a weather system perspective”. Using a novel data set of objectively identified weather systems, the goal of the first part of the project is to develop a conceptual picture on how different states of the El Nino Southern Oscillation are related to the occurrence frequency of subtropical and midlatitude weather systems. The results will then be used to attribute the observed variability in temperature and precipitation to these weather systems.

We wish Nadine and Seraphine great success and a lot of fun with their work!


01/03/2018 - Welcome

We welcome Dominik Büeler as a new member of the group “Large-scale Dynamics and Predictability”. Dominik received his PhD from ETH Zurich for his thesis entitled "Potential vorticity diagnostics to quantify effects of latent heating in extratropical cyclones: methodology and application to idealized climate change simulations". Already before his PhD, Dominik gained experience both in climate and weather modelling: he analysed marine boundary layer clouds in ECHAM5-HAM and investigated the northern mid- and high-latitude climate in a climate change mitigation scenario in his Bachelor and Master thesis, respectively. During a one-year internship at MeteoSwiss, he worked on the potential of COSMO in predicting photovoltaic power, which offered him an insight into applied weather science. After a short PostDoc project at ETH Zurich last autumn on month-ahead predictability of European wind power, Dominik will continue research in the field of sub-seasonal predictability at KIT in the project “SPREADOUT”. He will study the representation of large-scale weather regimes in sub-seasonal numerical weather prediction models and physical processes governing weather regime life cycles. We wish Dominik a great start, success and a lot of fun with his work and colleagues at IMK.

 

15/02/2018 - Welcome

We welcome Julian Quinting as a senior scientist in the group “Large-scale Dynamics and Predictability”. Julian received his PhD from KIT for his thesis entitled “ The impact of tropical convection on the dynamics and predictability of midlatitude Rossby waves: a climatological study” His Diploma and PhD research was part of the PANDOWAE research unit. After his PostDoc time at ETH Zurich and Monash University, Melbourne, Julian is back at KIT and will work on Sub-seasonal predictability in the project “SPREADOUT”.

As a PostDoc in Zurich, Julian worked on upper-level frontogenesis, Rossby wave dynamics, and MJO teleconnections. In addition, he helped preparing the NAWDEX field campaign and in autumn 2016 contributed actively to flight planning and forecasting based in Iceland. His research focus during the last 2 years at Monash shifted to the understanding of physical processes driving extreme events in the Australian region (e.g. heat waves) and southern hemispheric Rossby wave dynamics. In SPREADOUT Julian will study the representation of physical processes in global NWP data sets, their modulation by global teleconnections (e.g. MJO, ENSO), and how they affect sub-seasonal predictability for Europe. We wish Julian great success and a lot of fun with his work and colleagues at IMK.

 

 

12/12/2017 - Statement regarding Nature Geoscience manuscript “Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions”

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picture: Bernhard Mühr, www.wolkenatlas.de

Based on an ensemble of 10 global climate model simulations following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, this study reports a strong decrease of potential wind electricity generation in the mid-latitudes during the XXI Century (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-017-0029-9). The authors use a simple methodology and data with low spatio-temporal resolution, and consider an exemplary wind energy turbine for the computations. Compared to other regions of the world (notably North America), the changes for Europe are comparatively small. These projections for Europe are partially in agreement with studies based on datasets with much higher spatial and temporal resolution (e.g., Tobin et al., 2015, Reyers et al., 2016, Moemken et al., 2018). These studies reveal rather small changes of wind energy potentials for Europe on the continental scale (+/- 5%). On the other hand, they point to increased variability of wind electricity generation in multiple time scales. The differences to the Nature Geoscience study are related with the different data resolution and methodology.

In particular, an increased occurrence of low wind speed (< 3m/s) events reported in Moemken et al. (2018) may cause challenges for the energy supply across Europe. However, this challenge can be overcome with suitable mitigation strategies and updated planning. For example, Grams et al. (2017) provide evidence that the concentration of wind parks in some areas (e.g. North Sea) is problematic to warrant a reliable wind electricity generation. A pan-European management strategy and a more de-central distribution of wind parks would permit to balance the weather and climate variability and thus contribute to a more reliable energy supply. Moreover, the joint management of different renewable sources (notably solar) would further contribute to mitigate the possible changes in wind energy production in future decades.

 

References:

Grams, C. M., R. Beerli, S. Pfenninger, I. Staffell, and H. Wernli, 2017: Balancing Europe’s wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes. Nature Climate Change, 7, 557–562, doi:10.1038/nclimate3338.

Moemken, J., M. Reyers, H. Feldmann, and J. G. Pinto, 2018: Wind speed and wind energy potentials in EURO-CORDEX ensemble simulations: evaluation and future changes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, in revision.

Reyers, M., J. Moemken, and J. G. Pinto, 2016: Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Int. J. Climatol., 36, 783–796, doi:10.1002/joc.4382.

Tobin, I., and Coauthors, 2015: Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections. Climatic Change, 128, 99–112, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1291-0.

Link: http://www.sek.kit.edu/kit_express_3874.php

Contact: Joaquim G. Pinto http://www.imk-tro.kit.edu/14_7131.php

Contact: Christian M. Grams http://www.imk-tro.kit.edu/14_7356.php