Prof S.C. Jones

 Ensemble forecasts are used to quantify the uncertatinty that is associated with a single weather forecast. In the ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts different perturbation methods are applied to account for uncertainties associated with the initial conditions and the forecast model. In this study, the impact of the different methods on tropical cyclone forecasts is analysed and the growth mechanisms of the perturbations are identified.