Publications


2022
Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
White, C. J.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Acharya, N.; Adefisan, E. A.; Anderson, M. L.; Aura, S.; Balogun, A. A.; Bertram, D.; Bluhm, S.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Browell, J.; Büeler, D.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Chourio, X.; Christel, I.; Coelho, C. A. S.; DeFlorio, M. J.; Delle Monache, L.; Di Giuseppe, F.; García-Solórzano, A. M.; Gibson, P. B.; Goddard, L.; González Romero, C.; Graham, R. J.; Graham, R. M.; Grams, C. M.; Halford, A.; Katty Huang, W. T.; Jensen, K.; Kilavi, M.; Lawal, K. A.; Lee, R. W.; MacLeod, D.; Manrique-Suñén, A.; Martins, E. S. P. R.; Maxwell, C. J.; Merryfield, W. J.; Muñoz, Á. G.; Olaniyan, E.; Otieno, G.; Oyedepo, J. A.; Palma, L.; Pechlivanidis, I. G.; Pons, D.; Ralph, F. M.; Reis Jr., D. S.; Remenyi, T. A.; Risbey, J. S.; Robertson, D. J. C.; Robertson, A. W.; Smith, S.; Soret, A.; Sun, T.; Todd, M. C.; Tozer, C. R.; Vasconcelos Jr., F. C.; Vigo, I.; Waliser, D. E.; Wetterhall, F.; Wilson, R. G.
2022. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103 (6), E1448–E1472. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe. Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Ludwig, P.; Ehmele, F.; Franca, M. J.; Mohr, S.; Caldas-Alvarez, A.; Daniell, J. E.; Ehret, U.; Feldmann, H.; Hundhausen, M.; Knippertz, P.; Küpfer, K.; Kunz, M.; Mühr, B.; Pinto, J. G.; Quinting, J.; Schäfer, A. M.; Seidel, F.; Wisotzky, C.
2022. Natural hazards and earth system sciences discussions. doi:10.5194/nhess-2022-225
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe. Part 1: Event description and analysis
Mohr, S.; Ehret, U.; Kunz, M.; Ludwig, P.; Caldas-Alvarez, A.; Daniell, J. E.; Ehmele, F.; Feldmann, H.; Franca, M. J.; Gattke, C.; Hundhausen, M.; Knippertz, P.; Küpfer, K.; Mühr, B.; Pinto, J. G.; Quinting, J.; Schäfer, A. M.; Scheibel, M.; Seidel, F.; Wisotzky, C.
2022. Natural hazards and earth system sciences. doi:10.5194/nhess-2022-137
The effect of stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendencies (SPPT) on rapidly ascending air streams
Pickl, M.; Lang, S. T. K.; Leutbecher, M.; Grams, C. M.
2022. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (744), 1242–1261. doi:10.1002/qj.4257
Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event
González-Alemán, J. J.; Grams, C. M.; Ayarzagüena, B.; Zurita-Gotor, P.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Gómara, I.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.; Vitart, F.
2022. Geophysical research letters, 49 (1). doi:10.1029/2021GL095464
Dynamics and predictability of cold spells over the Eastern Mediterranean
Hochman, A.; Scher, S.; Quinting, J.; Pinto, J. G.; Messori, G.
2022. Climate dynamics, 58, 2047–2064. doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05465-2
2021
Do Atlantic‐European weather regimes physically exist?
Hochman, A.; Messori, G.; Quinting, J. F.; Pinto, J. G.; Grams, C. M.
2021. Geophysical research letters, 48 (20), e2021GL095574. doi:10.1029/2021GL095574
EuLerian Identification of Ascending air Streams (ELIAS 2.0) in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part II: Model application to different data sets
Quinting, J. F.; Grams, C. M.; Oertel, A.; Pickl, M.
2021. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 2021, Article no: 278. doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-278
Year-round sub-seasonal forecast skill for Atlantic-European weather regimes
Büeler, D.; Ferranti, L.; Magnusson, L.; Quinting, J. F.; Grams, C. M.
2021. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741), 4283–4309. doi:10.1002/qj.4178
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Hochman, A.; Scher, S.; Quinting, J.; Pinto, J. G.; Messori, G.
2021. Earth System Dynamics, 12 (1), 133–149. doi:10.5194/esd-12-133-2021
2020
Stratospheric influence on ECMWF sub‐seasonal forecast skill for energy‐industry‐relevant surface weather in European countries
Büeler, D.; Beerli, R.; Wernli, H.; Grams, C. M.
2020. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (733), 3675–3694. doi:10.1002/qj.3866
Dynamics of concurrent and sequential Central European and Scandinavian heatwaves
Spensberger, C.; Madonna, E.; Boettcher, M.; Grams, C. M.; Papritz, L.; Quinting, J. F.; Röthlisberger, M.; Sprenger, M.; Zschenderlein, P.
2020. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (732), 2998–3013. doi:10.1002/qj.3822
The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events
Domeisen, D. I. V.; Grams, C. M.; Papritz, L.
2020. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2), 373–388. doi:10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020
The role of large-scale dynamics in an exceptional sequence of severe thunderstorms in Europe May–June 2018
Mohr, S.; Wilhelm, J.; Wandel, J.; Kunz, M.; Portmann, R.; Punge, H. J.; Schmidberger, M.; Quinting, J. F.; Grams, C. M.
2020. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2), 325–348. doi:10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020
The synoptic-dynamics of summertime heatwaves in the Sydney area (Australia)
Parker, T.; Quinting, J.; Reeder, M.
2020. Journal of southern hemisphere earth systems science, 69 (1), 116–130. doi:10.1071/ES19004
A weather system perspective on winter‐spring rainfall variability in southeastern Australia during El Niño
Hauser, S.; Grams, C. M.; Reeder, M. J.; McGregor, S.; Fink, A. H.; Quinting, J. F.
2020. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731), 2614–2633. doi:10.1002/qj.3808
Synoptic-scale controls of fog and low-cloud variability in the Namib Desert
Andersen, H.; Cermak, J.; Fuchs, J.; Knippertz, P.; Gaetani, M.; Quinting, J.; Sippel, S.; Vogt, R.
2020. Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 20 (6), 3415–3438. doi:10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020
Sub-national variability of wind power generation in complex terrain and its correlation with large-scale meteorology
Pickering, B.; Grams, C. M.; Pfenninger, S.
2020. Environmental research letters, 15 (4), Article: 044025. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab70bd
2019
The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
Catto, J. L.; Ackerley, D.; Booth, J. F.; Champion, A. J.; Colle, B. A.; Pfahl, S.; Pinto, J. G.; Quinting, J. F.; Seiler, C.
2019. Current climate change reports, 5 (4), 407–420. doi:10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4
What controls the formation of nocturnal low-level stratus clouds over southern West Africa during the monsoon season?
Babić, K.; Kalthoff, N.; Adler, B.; Quinting, J. F.; Lohou, F.; Dione, C.; Lothon, M.
2019. Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 19 (21), 13489–13506. doi:10.5194/acp-19-13489-2019
Representation of atmospheric blocking in the new global non-hydrostatic weather prediction model ICON
Attinger, R.; Keller, J. H.; Köhler, M.; Riboldi, J.; Grams, C. M.
2019. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 28 (5), 429–446. doi:10.1127/metz/2019/0967
Stratospheric modulation of the large‐scale circulation in the Atlantic‐European region and its implications for surface weather events
Beerli, R.; Grams, C. M.
2019. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (725), 3732–3750. doi:10.1002/qj.3653
Winter pressures on the UK health system dominated by the Greenland Blocking weather regime
Charlton-Perez, A. J.; Aldridge, R. W.; Grams, C. M.; Lee, R.
2019. Weather and climate extremes, 25, 100218. doi:10.1016/j.wace.2019.100218
The climatological impact of recurving North Atlantic tropical cyclones on downstream extreme precipitation events
Pohorsky, R.; Röthlisberger, M.; Grams, C. M.; Riboldi, J.; Martius, O.
2019. Monthly weather review, 147 (5), 1513–1532. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-18-0195.1
Representation of synoptic-scale Rossby Wave Packets and Blocking in the S2S Prediction Project Database
Quinting, J. F.; Vitart, F.
2019. Geophysical research letters, 46 (2), 1070–1078. doi:10.1029/2018GL081381
The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones Part II: Interaction with the midlatitude flow, downstream impacts, and implications for predictability
Keller, J. H.; Grams, C. M.; Riemer, M.; Archambault, H. M.; Bosart, L.; Doyle, J. D.; Evans, J. L.; Galarneau, T. J., Jr.; Griffin, K.; Harr, P. A.; Kitabatake, N.; McTaggart-Cowan, R.; Pantillon, F.; Quinting, J.; Reynolds, C. A.; Ritchie, E. A.; Torn, R. D.; Zhang, F.
2019. Monthly weather review, 147, 1077–1106. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0329.1
The intensity and motion of hybrid cyclones in the Australian region in a composite potential vorticity framework
Quinting, J. F.; Reeder, M. J.; Catto, J. L.
2019. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (718), 273–287. doi:10.1002/qj.3430
Synoptic climatology of hybrid cyclones in the Australian region
Quinting, J. F.; Catto, J. L.; Reeder, M. J.
2019. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (718), 288–302. doi:10.1002/qj.3431
2018
Two Synoptic Routes to Subtropical Heat Waves as Illustrated in the Brisbane Region of Australia
Quinting, J. F.; Parker, T. J.; Reeder, M. J.
2018. Geophysical research letters, 45 (19), 10,700–10,708. doi:10.1029/2018GL079261
Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles
Schaller, N.; Sillmann, J.; Anstey, J.; Fischer, E. M.; Grams, C. M.; Russo, S.
2018. Environmental research letters, 13 (5), Art.Nr. 054015. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaba55
The effects of orography on the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: a case study of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)
Lentink, H. S.; Grams, C. M.; Riemer, M.; Jones, S. C.
2018. Monthly weather review, 146, 4231–4246. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-18-0150.1
An atmospheric dynamics‘ perspective on the amplification and propagation of forecast error in numerical weather prediction models: a case study
Grams, C. M.; Magnusson, L.; Madonna, E.
2018. Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (717), 2577–2591. doi:10.1002/qj.3353
Rossby wave initiation by recurving tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific
Riboldi, J.; Röthlisberger, M.; Grams, C. M.
2018. Monthly weather review, 146 (5), 1283–1301. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0219.1
Relevant publications before group start

2018

Portmann R., B. Crezee, J. Quinting, H. Wernli, 2018: The complex life cycles of two long‐lived potential vorticity cut‐offs over Europe. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 701–719, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3239

Quinting, J.F., T. Parker, and M.J. Reeder, 2018: Two Synoptic Routes to Subtropical Heat Waves as Illustrated in the Brisbane Region of Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079261

Schäfler, A., and Coauthors, 2018: The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 1607–1637, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0003.1.

2017

Beerli, R., H. Wernli, and C. M. Grams, 2017: Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month-ahead wind electricity generation in Europe? Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 3025–3036, doi:10.1002/qj.3158.

Binder, H., M. Boettcher, C. M. Grams, H. Joos, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli, 2017: Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2017GL075841, doi:10.1002/2017GL075841.

Büeler, D., and S. Pfahl, 2017: Potential Vorticity Diagnostics to Quantify Effects of Latent Heating in Extratropical Cyclones. Part I: Methodology. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 3567–3590, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-17-0041.1.

Grams, C. M., R. Beerli, S. Pfenninger, I. Staffell, and H. Wernli, 2017: Balancing Europe/’s wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes. Nature Climate Change, 7, 557–562, doi:10.1038/nclimate3338.

Madonna, E., C. Li, C. M. Grams, and T. Woollings, 2017: The link between eddy-driven jet variability and weather regimes in the North Atlantic-European sector. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc, 143, 2960–2972, doi:10.1002/qj.3155.

Quinting, J.F. and M.J. Reeder, 2017: Southeastern Australian Heat Waves from a Trajectory Viewpoint. External Link Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 4109–4125, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0165.1

Schneidereit, A., and Coauthors, 2017: Enhanced Tropospheric Wave Forcing of Two Anticyclones in the Prephase of the January 2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 1797–1815, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0242.1.

2016

Grams, C. M., and H. M. Archambault, 2016: The key role of diabatic outflow in amplifying the midlatitude flow: a representative case study of weather systems surrounding western North Pacific extratropical transition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 3847–3869, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0419.1.

Quinting, J. F., and S. C. Jones, 2016: On the Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Rossby Wave Packets: A Climatological Perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 2021–2048, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00298.1.

2015

Madonna, E., M. Boettcher, C. M. Grams, H. Joos, O. Martius, and H. Wernli, 2015: Verification of North Atlantic warm conveyor belt outflowsin ECMWF forecasts. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1333–1344, doi:10.1002/qj.2442.

Pfahl, S., C. Schwierz, M. Croci-Maspoli, C. M. Grams, and H. Wernli, 2015: Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric blocking. Nature Geosci, 8, 610–614, doi:10.1038/ngeo2487.

Piaget, N., P. Froidevaux, P. Giannakaki, F. Gierth, O. Martius, M. Riemer, G. Wolf, and C. M. Grams, 2015: Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1922–1937, doi:10.1002/qj.2496.

Before 2015

Grams, C. M., H. Binder, S. Pfahl, N. Piaget, and H. Wernli, 2014: Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014.

Grams, C. M., and Coauthors, 2011: The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: a North Atlantic case-study. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 2174–2193, doi:10.1002/qj.891.