Meteorological extreme events, such as winter storms, heavy precipitation, hail, or convective wind gusts are often associated with serious consequences for the society and their assets. These events, however, occur not everywhere with the same intensity, but exhibit a high spatial and temporal variability. Furthermore, it is expected that the probability and intensity of extreme events will change as a result of climate change.
Within this context, various research projects are carried out in the working group "Atmospheric Risks". In the course of the relevant weather systems a special focus is on severe convective storms, hailstorms and heavy rainfall events. The following scientific questions are addressed:
- How can the hazard and risk of extreme weather events be estimated in high spatial resolution?
- Where and why are extreme events most frequent and most intensive?
- What are the trends of meteorological extremes in the past and what is expected for the future?
- What influence do large-scale processes and mechanisms (e.g. weather conditions, teleconnections) have on the frequency of extreme events?
To answer these questions, various observational data sets (station data, insurance data, radiosonde data), remote sensing data (radar, satellite) and simulation results from operational weather prediction models and regional climate models are evaluated and analyzed by applying modern statistical methods. These works are supplemented by modeling studies with numerical and diagnostic models to reproduce the relevant physical processes in detail and, thus, to gain a better understanding of these phenomena.